Friendliness is the Least of the Tourism Industry's Problems
The World Economic Forum (WEF) recently published its "The Travel & Tourism Competitiveness Report 2013," and you may have noticed, as I did, that the big story in the local news about the report was that Mongolia ranked in the bottom ten countries in terms of friendliness towards foreign visitors. What the, wha?! This is literally a place in which you can show up on an unfamiliar doorstep and expect to be treated to a cup of tea before you're even asked why you're there. One of the least friendly countries in the world? Preposterous! I had to look at the report for myself to see how WEF could have gone so terribly wrong. What I discovered was far more interesting and useful than the local news coverage of the report let on.
Spending Money to Make Money in the Gobi
The World Bank recently published a report analyzing public infrastructure investment in Mongolia (highlights here).1 The authors of the report argue that as the economy grows the challenge of scaling up the country's infrastructure in cost-effective and targeted ways will be a significant determinant in whether Mongolia avoids the dreaded "resource curse." Mongolia's current transport and energy systems are inadequate to meet present, let alone future, needs, dragging down productivity and pushing up costs in every sector of the economy. The report puts in words and graphs what is clearly visible in everyday life, that for a country with jaw-dropping GDP growth there is a serious infrastructure problem.
Instant Analysis (Sort of): The OT Dispute
Instant analysis of the major news stories of the day is something I take for granted until it's not there. The last few days I have been craving substantive analysis of the Oyu Tolgoi (OT) shareholders meeting and the many side issues associated with the project, but it has only come in drips and drabs of information from many different sources. It is easier for me to get caught up on Jennifer Lawrence's stumble at the Oscars ceremony than the OT dispute. I may not be alone, so I thought a summary of the information I have gathered could offer some sustenance to others with the same craving.
Mongolia and Rio Tinto: No Silver Bullets, but Many Dead Cats
The relationship between the Mongolian government and Rio Tinto is delicate and complex. It is easy as an outside observer to suggest silver bullet solutions for every problem that emerges as the Oyu Tolgoi (OT) project moves forward, but silver bullets often ignore the complexity of the political environment in which the relationship exists. Mongolia has a nascent multi-party democracy that still isn't resistant to extreme political gamesmanship. Politics are always a bit chaotic anywhere, but in Mongolia the moniker of "The Wild East" still seems accurate in describing the situation. In spite of the uncertainty everyone faces (including the government), there is a tendency to assess political issues in simple binary terms. Good or bad. Right or wrong. But, in cases where political disagreements are inclined to pull everyone in the wrong direction, keeping an issue unresolved may be as good is it gets. Swift resolutions may provide the hope of removing "uncertainty," but forcing issues before acceptable policy outcomes are probable undermines that hope. Thinking of the Mongolia and Rio Tinto relationship in this way, I am reminded of "Schrödinger's cat." When the hypothetical political arguments collapse on an actual policy outcome, no one wants to see a dead cat.
Trending Searches: OT vs. TT
It is easy to write that Tavan Tolgoi (TT) receives much less public attention than Oyu Tolgoi (OT), but it is tougher to quantify the difference. The editorial standard that I strive for with this blog is to use evidence based investigation to construct the best descriptions and analyses possible given available information. After writing my last post describing TT as the 7.5 billion tonne gorilla in the room, I was left feeling like I had not done enough to support the claim that TT does in fact receive less coverage in the media. In this post I examine whether there is empirial evidence to support the claim.
